Joe Biden’s strong record on jobs and Kamala Harris’s vow to reduce the cost of living couldn’t prevent the Democrats from succumbing to a global anti-incumbency wave.

Inflation has since come down to levels close to normal thanks in large part to a steep rise in interest rates. But in an ironic twist, some of Trump’s own policies – which he heavily promoted on the campaign trail – could send inflation soaring once more if enacted.

But an analysis of geographically granular US inflation and the actual election results suggests that inflation didn’t have a straightforward effect on the swing to Trump. If it did, places which suffered higher inflation would have been more likely to see increased Trump share of the vote over 2020.